误闯天家 won despite 摆烂吧 holding the stronger draft (+490). The matchup matrix was wrong on this one — individual skill and in-game decisions proved decisive.

误闯天家 fields a noticeably stronger squad by leaderboard rank (★24167 vs ★39633), giving them a tangible individual skill advantage heading into this match.

The matchup matrix leans in favour of 摆烂吧 (+490), though the draft is far from one-sided — execution will matter more than the numbers suggest.