砍瓜 won with a clear draft edge backing them up (+404), turning their statistical advantage into the expected result.

砍瓜 fields a noticeably stronger squad by leaderboard rank (★44555 vs ★50000), giving them a tangible individual skill advantage heading into this match.

The matchup matrix leans in favour of 砍瓜 (+404), though the draft is far from one-sided — execution will matter more than the numbers suggest.