恒河皮划艇 won despite 月亮惹的祸 holding the stronger draft (+499). The matchup matrix was wrong on this one — individual skill and in-game decisions proved decisive.

恒河皮划艇 fields a noticeably stronger squad by leaderboard rank (★11277 vs ★26213), giving them a tangible individual skill advantage heading into this match.

The matchup matrix leans in favour of 月亮惹的祸 (+499), though the draft is far from one-sided — execution will matter more than the numbers suggest.