大板鲫 won despite 菜市场 holding the stronger draft (+468). The matchup matrix was wrong on this one — individual skill and in-game decisions proved decisive.

大板鲫 fields a noticeably stronger squad by leaderboard rank (★21324 vs ★29863), giving them a tangible individual skill advantage heading into this match.

The matchup matrix leans in favour of 菜市场 (+468), though the draft is far from one-sided — execution will matter more than the numbers suggest.