Ilbirs Esports won despite Nemiga Gaming holding the stronger draft (-412). The matchup matrix was wrong on this one — individual skill and in-game decisions proved decisive.

Ilbirs Esports fields a noticeably stronger squad by leaderboard rank (★579 vs ★826), giving them a tangible individual skill advantage heading into this match.

The matchup matrix leans in favour of Nemiga Gaming (-412), though the draft is far from one-sided — execution will matter more than the numbers suggest.