师妹说得对 won despite 今晚绝不咕 holding the stronger draft (+485). The matchup matrix was wrong on this one — individual skill and in-game decisions proved decisive.

今晚绝不咕 fields a noticeably stronger squad by leaderboard rank (★34000 vs ★37000), giving them a tangible individual skill advantage heading into this match.

The matchup matrix leans in favour of 今晚绝不咕 (+485), though the draft is far from one-sided — execution will matter more than the numbers suggest.