Федерер took the win with a modest draft edge (+369), confirming that the matchup data leaned the right way.

Надаль fields a noticeably stronger squad by leaderboard rank (★40000 vs ★44540), giving them a tangible individual skill advantage heading into this match.

The matchup matrix leans in favour of Федерер (+369), though the draft is far from one-sided — execution will matter more than the numbers suggest.