小破船 won with a clear draft edge backing them up (-431), turning their statistical advantage into the expected result.

小破船 fields a noticeably stronger squad by leaderboard rank (★9814 vs ★30164), giving them a tangible individual skill advantage heading into this match.

The matchup matrix leans in favour of 小破船 (-431), though the draft is far from one-sided — execution will matter more than the numbers suggest.