泉水保卫队 won despite 锦衣卫·东厂 holding the stronger draft (-448). The matchup matrix was wrong on this one — individual skill and in-game decisions proved decisive.

泉水保卫队 fields a noticeably stronger squad by leaderboard rank (★12399 vs ★13179), giving them a tangible individual skill advantage heading into this match.

The matchup matrix leans in favour of 锦衣卫·东厂 (-448), though the draft is far from one-sided — execution will matter more than the numbers suggest.